How many MVPs should Rickey have won?
A mostly objective look back on MVP how voting in the 1980s would differ nowadays
The Most Valuable Player awards will be announced today and the only drama is whether Shohei Ohtani and Ronald Acuna, Jr. will be unanimous selections or not.
I’m confident that 20 years ago voters would agree Ohtani was the MVP in baseball, and 20 years into the future, no matter what new statistic we’re using to evaluate players, voters will also agree that Ohtani was the MVP in baseball.
We can’t always say that about MVP voting. I actually really appreciate that. I don’t like the vitriol toward each other and why people take it so personally. But I enjoy the difference in opinion about what makes a player Valuable and I think Acuna’s 2023 would be viewed differently in 2003 or 2043.
This year, Acuna became the first player in baseball history with more than 40 home runs and more than 70 stolen bases, which got me thinking about Rickey Henderson, which isn’t all that unusual because I spend an inordinate amount of time thinking about my favorite childhood player.
And, yes, this is an excuse to post a photo of me and Rickey from a few years ago. (From this point on, I’m only going to refer to him as Rickey.)
This got me thinking:
What was the highest HR/SB totals in Rickey’s career and how does it compare to Acuna?
How many more MVP’s might Rickey have won if voters back then evaluated players the way voters do now?
The first was easy.
Rickey’s career-high for home runs was 28, in 1986 (when he stole 87 bases) and his MVP season of 1990 (when he swiped 65). Rickey’s career-high in stolen bases was the 130 in 1982 that established a record that I doubt will ever be broken. He hit 10 homers that year.
The next part is way more subjective and will test my objectivity. Let’s review the 1980s, shall we?
1980
Actual voting
1. Royals 3B George Brett 335 points (17 first-place votes)
2. Yankees OF Reggie Jackson 234 points (5)
3. Yankees RHP Rich Gossage 218 points (4)
4. Royals OF Willie Wilson 169 points (1)
5. Brewers 1B Cecil Cooper 160 points
--
10. Rickey 51 points
WAR (via Baseball-Reference)
1. Brett 9.4
2. Rickey 8.8
3. Wilson 8.5
4. Robin Yount 7.1
5. Cooper 6.8
Brett captivated the nation with his batting average. He was still at exactly .400 after play on Sept. 19, finishing at .390 overall. Brett led the league in the three slash categories (way before this was a thing) and the Royals went to the playoffs. This was a no-brainer. I’m surprised anyone else received first-place votes.
This was Rickey’s first full season in the majors and he burst on the scene with an even 100 stolen bases, 21 more than the next closest. He was second in walks (117), third in on-base (.420) and fourth in runs (111). He was only 21 years old and it was clear greatness was in his future, but really it was just the stolen bases that got people’s attention.
1981
Actual voting
1. Brewers reliever Rollie Fingers 319 points (15 first-place votes)
2. A’s outfielder Rickey Henderson 308 (12)
3. Red Sox outfielder Dwight Evans 140
4. A’s outfielder Tony Armas 139 (1)
5. Orioles first baseman Eddie Murray 137
WAR (via B-Ref)
1. Rickey 6.7
2. Evans 6.7
3. Rangers third baseman Buddy Bell (!) 6.2
4. Angels second baseman Bobby Grich (!) 5.5
5. Brewers shortstop Robin Yount 4.9
6. A’s starter Steve McCatty 4.5
7. A’s outfielder Dwayne Murphy 4.4
-
10. Fingers 4.2
Modern voters don’t exclusively make their selections based on WAR, but it’s the de facto starting point. WAR, for those who don’t know, stands for Wins Above Replacement. It’s an attempt at an all-encompassing number to determine how much better a player is than an average replacement (from the bench or the minors). WAR became part of Baseball Reference’s database in 2009.
It’s likely 2023 voters would select between Rickey and Evans in 1981, based purely on WAR. The A’s went to the playoffs that year and maybe that gives Rickey the slight edge. Remember, a strike wiped out one-third of the season and it was split into two halves. The A’s were the toast of the sport early in the season, behind manager Billy Martin, who was on the cover of Time Magazine.
It’s really something the A’s had three players in the top seven of WAR, and four in the top 11 (Armas finished with 4.2 WAR). I wonder if Rickey lost actual votes in 1981 to his teammates, especially Armas, who tied for the league lead in homers and was second in RBIs.
American League voters really liked pitchers in the 1980s. Fingers was the first of three – with Tigers closer Willie Hernandez in 1984 and Red Sox starter Roger Clemens in 1986 – to win an MVP in a six-year stretch.
By comparison, National League voters, despite the pitcher actually hitting, didn’t select a pitcher as MVP between Bob Gibson in 1968 and Clayton Kershaw in 2014.
Anyway, it’s not a slam dunk, but you can make a compelling argument that Rickey should have won the 1981 MVP.
1982
Actual voting
1. Brewers shortstop Robin Yount 385 points (27 first-place votes)
2. Orioles first baseman Eddie Murray 228
3. Angels third baseman Doug DeCinces 178
4. Royals outfielder Hal McRae 175
5. Brewers first baseman Cecil Cooper 152
6. Angels outfielder Reggie Jackson 107 (1)
10. Rickey 38 points
WAR (B-Ref)
1. Yount 10.5
2. DeCinces 7.6
3. Rickey 6.7
4. Indians third baseman Toby Harrah 6.6
5. Red Sox outfielder Dwight Evans 6.4
This is the year Rickey stole 130 bases, shattering Lou Brock’s record of 118, and also led the league in walks. Rickey’s defense was really good back then, but it’s not worth belaboring the discussion about 1982.
Yount was the best, whether you like counting numbers or WAR.
1983
The actual winner was Cal Ripken, Jr. He also posted the highest WAR (8.2).
Rickey received 1 MVP vote for 10th place and finished with the fourth-highest WAR (6.9). Rickey stole 108 more bags and walked 103 more times to lead the league. In modern times, Rickey might finish in the Top 5, certainly the Top 10, but he didn’t deserve the MVP, so let’s move on again.
1984
This was Rickey’s final season with the A’s (Version 1.0) and a down year by his standards. He played “only” 142 games and stole “only” 66 bases (still leading the league). He hit 16 homers, then a career-high, and the narrative was he was ruining his game by trying for power.
He didn’t receive any MVP votes. But he still finished with a WAR of 6.0, which was tied for 9th best in the American League. Hold tight. It’s about to get interesting.
1985
Actual voting
1. Yankees first baseman Don Mattingly 367 points (23 first-place votes)
2. Royals third baseman George Brett 274 (5)
3. Yankees outfielder Rickey Henderson 174
4. Red Sox third baseman Wade Boggs 159
5. Orioles first baseman Eddie Murray 130
WAR (B-Ref)
1. Rickey 9.9
2. Boggs 9.1
3. Brett 8.3
4. Royals pitcher Bret Saberhagen 7.1
5. Blue Jays outfielder Jesse Barfield 6.9
6. Mattingly 6.5
Voters used to loooooove RBIs and Mattingly knocked in 145 that year, 21 more than the next-highest. He was fourth in homers, second in hits behind Boggs, third in average (that used to matter), was elite defensively at first base, played in New York, and arguably the most popular player in baseball.
It’s understandable why Mattingly won in 1985. But would he win today? I’m not sure. By WAR, it’s not close. It’s Rickey or Boggs.
This was Rickey’s first year in New York. Reporters didn’t know what to think of him. Mattingly drove in all those runs because Rickey was always on base (99 walks, 80 steals) and he played a lot of center field back (137 starts) back then too.
Brett, it should be noted, led the league in walks, slugging and OPS, and was also elite defensively.
If you go off WAR, the MVP was Rickey, and he missed 19 games that season.
1986
The winner was Roger Clemens. Rickey didn’t receive any MVP votes. His WAR was 6.3, which is sixth-best in the AL. Even when Rickey wasn’t even a factor in MVP voting, he was still one of the dominant players in the league.
I’m using WAR a lot here intentionally. I really want to get behind it. Butttt, I do want to point out that as much as I appreciate the simplification of WAR, I look at this season and shake my head.
Clemens finished with a WAR of 8.8, while Brewers starter Teddy Higuera compiled a 9.4. Clemens had more wins (24 to 20), fewer losses (4 to 11), a lower WHIP (0.9 to 1.2), more innings (254 to 248), fewer walks (67 to 74) and more strikeouts (238 to 207).
Higuera made one more start (34 to 33), had more complete games (15 to 10), and more shutouts (4 to 1). I have a much stronger appreciation for Higuera that I did yesterday, but still can’t accept it was a better season than Clemens.
1987
The actual winner was George Bell (5.0 WAR, but remember RBIs mattered back then and he drove in 134), followed by Alan Trammell (8.2 WAR, helped by his stellar defense and the Tigers making the playoffs).
The leader in WAR was Clemens at 9.4 and Boggs was second (8.3). Dwight Evans was fourth in voting and 12th in WAR. Yes, the Red Sox had three elite players and still finished with a 78-84 record in fifth place.
Rickey didn’t receive any MVP votes. This was his worst season of the decade. People were wondering if he was slipping a little or a lot. Still, his WAR was 4.7, ranked 13th in the league. It was the only time the entire decade he didn’t finish in the Top 10 in WAR.
1988
Jose Canseco became the charter member of the 40/40 club, led the league in homers and RBIs (remember: those matter) and slugging, and he still cared about his defense that season (he was actually terrific with the glove that year). The A’s were the best regular season team in baseball. Canseco’s 7.3 WAR was fifth best in the AL.
Perpetually underappreciated Wade Boggs led the league in WAR at 8.3, yet finished sixth in actual voting. Teammate Mike Greenwell (7.5 WAR) was second in MVP voting because he drove in 119 runs and RBIs used to matter.
Rickey made his seventh straight All-Star Game, eighth total, again led the league with 93 more steals, his batting average (which also used to matter) was .305 (third-best of his career at the time), and he received just eight votes. Rickey’s WAR was 6.3, 7th best. Also fun to note that A’s outfielder Dave Henderson received 28 votes and finished 13th in voting.
Onward. It’s about to get fun.
1989
Objectively, this was the hardest year for voters to decide in the decade, maybe in the last 30 years. I’m going to list a lot more players than other years to illustrate.
Actual voting
1. Robin Yount 256 points (8 first-place votes)
2. Ruben Sierra 228 (6)
3. Cal Ripken, Jr. 216 (6)
4. George Bell 206 (4)
5. Dennis Eckersley 116 (3)
6. Fred McGriff 96
7. Kirby Puckett 84
8. Bret Saberhagen 82
9. Rickey 67
-
17. Carney Lansford 20 (1 first place !)
WAR (B-Ref)
1. Royals pitcher Bret Saberhagen 9.7
2. Rickey 8.7
3. Boggs 8.4
4. Ripken 6.7
5. McGriff 6.6
6. Twins starter Bert Blyleven (!) 6.0
7. Sierra 5.9
8. Yount 5.8
9. A’s starter Mike Moore (!!!) 5.4
10. Nolan Ryan 5.1
Whew. Alright. Where to begin?
I recall there was outrage in 1989 that Sierra didn’t win. I mean, he led the league in RBIs (119) and – everyone all together now -- RBIs were really important back then. Sierra also led the league in slugging, which nobody looked at back then.
Batting champ Kirby Puckett (.339) finished seventh in actual voting. On-base champion Wade Boggs (.430) finished 21st. Home run and OPS champion Fred McGriff (.924) finished sixth.
Again, Saberhagen was the WAR leader. If you’re dying to know about his stats that appeared on the back of baseball cards, Sabes led the league in wins (23), ERA (2.16), WHIP (0.9) and innings (262). That was part of this weird trend where Saberhagen was spectacular in odd years and average in even years.
Rickey had the highest WAR among position players. He led the league in walks, steals and runs scored. He slashed .274/.411/.399 if you care about those things.
Remember, this is the year Rickey was traded back to the A’s. This is when the trading deadline was in mid-June. This is when the A’s were in desperate need of a boost because Canseco was out three months with an injury, McGwire was having a down year, Felix Jose was not coming close to living up to the hope, none of the A’s leadoff hitters were producing much, and Ozzie Canseco was struggling at Double-A.
Rickey compiled 5.1 of his 8.7 WAR with the A’s. The trade invigorated Rickey and the A’s. They ended up winning the World Series and Rickey was the MVP of the ALCS.
When the traded was made, however, the narrative was “which Rickey are the A’s getting?” It was the first year Rickey didn’t make the All-Star Team since 1981. He was batting .247 with the Yankees at the time of the trade. Those were probably factors working against him in 1989.
I still don’t know who shoulda won MVP, but it’s hard to make a case for Yount. He was eighth in WAR, didn’t lead the league in anything, and the Brewers finished 81-81.
The Blue Jays and A’s were the playoff teams. Besides McGriff, the Blue Jays had George Bell finish fourth in actual voting, while his WAR was 21st best.
The A’s had six players finish in the top 20 in voting. Eckersley was fifth, Rickey was eighth, Dave Parker finished 11th, pitcher Dave Stewart was 14th, third baseman Carney Lansford was 17th, and starting pitcher Mike Moore was 20th. Captain Carney and the Cobra really carried the offense until the reinforcements arrived, but the real story was the A’s pitching was spectacular.
Maybe the MVP shoulda been McGriff? Again, he was on a playoff team, first in OPS and OPS-Plus, 2nd in slugging, 4th in on-base, 14th in batting average, first in homers, 12th in RBIs, fifth in WAR.
If McGriff was MVP that year, the writers probably vote him into the Hall of Fame many years ago and he doesn’t have to wait for the Veterans Committee, right? McGriff is definitely not a slam dunk. Nobody from that season is. That’s why so six different players received first-place votes.
My heart says the MVP is Rickey because he immediately saved the A’s season and he had the highest WAR among position players.
Who would modern voters in 2023 select? I asked my friend Dan Hayes. He’s currently a writer with a vote, and knows how other writers think. He said “probably” Rickey and that seals it.
Rickey shoulda won it.
If you’re counting so far, that means Rickey had a very strong case in 1981, 1985 and 1989.
1990
Rickey won the MVP, but it was close voting (317 points, 14 first-place) to runner-up Cecil Fielder (286 points, 10 first-place). Fielder was back from Japan and hit 51 home runs, the first player to go over 50 (at the time) since George Foster in 1977.
Based on WAR, Clemens was first at 10.4, Rickey second at 9.9, Ripken third at 7.5, then Trammell at 6.7 and Fielder at 6.5.
Rickey tied his career-high with 28 homers, which no doubt is why he finally won the MVP. As usual, he led the league in runs scored and stolen bases. He was actually first in OPS (1016).
That’s now 10 seasons, one MVP for Rickey, and a strong case for three more.
Starting in 1980, his WAR went like this: 8.8, 6.7, 6.7, 6.9, 6.0, 9.9, 6.3, 4.7, 6.3, 8.7 and 9.9 in 1990.
His rankings in the AL went like this: 2nd, T1st, 3rd, 4th, T9th, 1st, 6th, 13th, 7th, 2nd, 2nd.
Postscript
Keep in mind, 1990 was Rickey’s age-31 season, it was his 12th year in the majors, and he still played another 13 years after this. Although if I’m being objective, he was never a dominant player again.
Rickey made one more All-Star Game (1991) and never received another MVP vote.
In 1993 he was sent to the Blue Jays at the trading deadline and that was unofficially the end of the A’s dynasty. Rickey won another World Series with the Jays, then re-signed with the A’s in the offseason for his third stint, played two more years, then signed with the Padres and was part of their 1996 pennant winner.
In 1997, the Padres sent Rickey to the Angels for the stretch drive, then he signed back with the A’s in 1998 for his fourth time in the organization and led the league in steals once more time, swiping 66 bags at age 39. That was the 12th (and final) time Rickey led the league in steals. He also led the league with 118 walks that year and his .376 on-base was still 22nd best in the league. He played in 152 games and compiled 670 plate appearances. Again, he was 39 years old!
Rickey then signed with the Mets for 1999, got released in May, well before they got hot and went to the World Series, and finished the year with the Mariners. Rickey returned to the Padres in 2001, then the Red Sox in 2002, and his final year was 2003 with the Dodgers, who signed him in mid-July.
He played two more years of independent league baseball, posted .462 and .456 on-base percentages, while stealing 37 and 17 bases, at ages 45 and 46. His final year, he was 20 years older than the average player in the league.
In 2004, Victor Rodriguez of the Somerset Patriots won the MVP over Rickey in the Atlantic League. Much as I’d like to finish this ridiculously long newsletter with one more MVP that Rickey shoulda won, I can’t objectively do it. I don’t think WAR is calculated for indy leagues, so here are the slash lines.
Rodriguez: .371/.413/.502
Rickey: .281/.462/.436
Fun fact because I want you to know why I typed their names earlier: Felix Jose (1998) and Ozzie Canseco (2000) won MVPs in the Atlantic League.
So that is my mostly objective analysis of how Rickey won one MVP and might have won a total of four if voters in the 1980s thought like modern voters.
How many MVPs do you think Rickey should have won?