Football sidelines are changing
Pete Carroll and Nick Saban are leaving coaching. Bill Belichick might be next. Get ready for a seismic shift in coaching philosophy
Two of the most iconic football coaches over the last two decades are departing their positions and the future of a third legend is still to be determined. The decision on their successors represents a potential tectonic shift on what NFL owners and Universities want in a modern head coach.
Even if you don’t follow football closely, you’re probably familiar with Pete Carroll, Nick Saban and Bill Belichick.
Known for his energetic personality, the 72-year-old Carroll was a flop as a head coach twice in the NFL with the Bills and Jets, a last-resort choice at USC deplored by alums, only to lead the Trojans to two national titles and their biggest glory years, then he became one of the few college coaches to find success in the NFL with the Seattle Seahawks. Carroll is moving to an Advisor role.
Known for his demanding personality, the 72-year-old Saban was a successful head coach at Michigan State and LSU (where he won his first national title), flopped in the NFL with the Miami Dolphins, then engineered the most dominant stretch college football has ever seen at the University of Alabama (11 league titles in 16 years and six national titles). Saban is retiring.
Known for his curmudgeon personality, the 71-year-old Bill Belichick’s future with the New England Patriots remains in limbo after a 4-13 season. Belichick won six Super Bowls, a record for a head coach, with Tom Brady as his quarterback. He’s 29-38 since Brady left the organization with zero playoff wins. Belichick has yet to receive assurances he’ll return next season. (Updated: Belichick is officially out.)
The process of identifying candidates for football head coaches, interviewing them, signing them to lucrative guaranteed contracts, and ultimately firing them remains fairly mysterious to the public.
For all of their wealth, business acumen and degrees, the track record of NFL owners shows they aren’t any better than your local Starbucks manager at hiring.
I mean, being an NFL owner means you can throw an alcoholic drink at your own fans, as Carolina Panthers owner David Tepper did, not answer any questions from reporters about it, issue a statement in which you don’t apologize, and pay a fine. And we’re supposed to be confident in their decision-making skills?
To be fair, these are ultra competitive jobs, somebody has to lose each game, and the pressure to bring in a new coach has never been greater for NFL owners. [Bill Walsh was 8-24 in his first two years as the 49ers head coach. I doubt he’d have lasted a third year in the current landscape.]
Each of the past 11 years, there’s been at least five new NFL head coaches.
With the change in Carroll’s role, the NFL now has seven openings. The Raiders, Chargers and Panthers fired their head coach midseason. The Falcons, Commanders, and Titans fired their coach earlier this week.
The decision making varies based on what an organization thinks of itself, what just worked, or didn’t work, but we’re also seeing signs of change.
The Raiders will decide if they want to retain interim coach Antonio Price, and if they do, it will overwhelmingly because the team’s three best players – plus a lot of their famous former players – have very VERY publicly endorsed him.
Pierce represents a change in the face of a football head coach, and not just because he’s Black. He wasn’t an offensive or defensive coordinator. Pierce never played for the Raiders, but leans in completely on the Raiders motto. He grew up a Raiders fan in Compton. He tells reporters the game plan is to dominate. He socializes with fans at the stadium in the parking lot when he arrives before games. He celebrates with the fans on the field as they chant his initials after games. He growls, “Rayyyyyyyy-derrssss” at press conferences. He embraces, and joins his players, in smoking cigars after victories, even though the team finished with a losing record.
That’s definitely not the corporate Patriots Way. But it’s ignited the Raiders locker room and fanbase. I’ll be stunned if he doesn’t remain the head coach.
Not every team is the Raiders. No other team is the Raiders, in any sport.
When this latest round of NFL coaching hires is complete, I think we’ll see a few familiar themes.
A former head coach will get another chance.
An offensive coordinator lauded for his innovative scheme will get his first chance.
A team will wait out Jim Harbaugh for his annual dance on returning to the NFL.
A team will truly go “outside the box” with a candidate that all makes us scratch our head.
Outside of Harbaugh, the days of the NFL hiring college coaches is on a serious break. The pipeline was fruitful in the 1980s and 1990s.
Bill Walsh created his offensive philosophy at Stanford, then won three Super Bowls with the 49ers. John Robinson won national titles at USC, and while he didn’t win a Super Bowl with the Rams, he was quite successful. Jimmy Johnson won national titles at Miami and Super Bowls with the Cowboys. Barry Switzer won a national title at Oklahoma, then didn’t screw up what Johnson left him with the Cowboys to win a Super Bowl.
Harbaugh is the ultra-rare coach to be successful in college, the NFL, back in college, and might be heading back to the NFL. I feel the need to slip Don Coryell into this conversation too, while acknowledging he built San Diego State to a powerhouse before it was Division I and never reached a Super Bowl with the Chargers.
The list of high-profile college coaches who failed in the NFL recently is much longer: Saban, Urban Meyer, Steve Spurrier, Lou Holtz, Dennis Erickson, Bobby Petrino, Chip Kelly, Matt Rhule, Greg Schiano and Kliff Kingsbury.
In fact, since 2000, only two NCAA-to-NFL coaches even own a winning record: Harbaugh (.688) and Bill O’Brien just barely (.509).
The teams I’m most curious to see who they hire are the Washington Commanders and the Tennessee Titans, primarily because some of the decision makers involved aren’t from the usual background (male, white, old, rich from another business that wasn’t football).
The Commanders hired a former executive from the NBA, Bob Myers, to assist in their search, hoping the culture he oversaw with the Golden State Warriors will transfer to the gridiron. Myers won’t have the final say and he’s not hiring Steve Kerr, but their hiring process figures to be different.
The Titans owner is a woman, Amy Adams Strunk, who fired the GM in early December (10 months after giving him a two-year extension), certainly heard the astonishment in the industry that head coach Mike Vrabel (the Coach of the Year two years ago) was then fired, and released a word-soup statement about the franchise direction.
As the NFL continues to innovate and evolve, I believe the teams best positioned for sustained success will be those who empower an aligned and collaborative team across all football functions. Last year, we began a shift in our approach to football leadership and made several changes to our personnel to advance that plan.
What I think that means is the old way of football leadership, where the head coach has final say over everything, and then power duties funnel outward, is about to change.
Bill Parcells famously said, “if they want you to cook the dinner, at least they ought to let you shop for some of the groceries.”
Parcells got this power at many of his stops. So did Belichick. It was never clear if Jon Gruden was supposed to have the biggest voice on roster decision in his second stint with the Raiders, but it sure seemed that way. It’s astonishing how many NFL teams still have confusion over who has final say on roster decisions. Or maybe the coach just has a stronger personality than the general manager and gets his way.
Going forward, we’re going to see a much stronger line of command from Owner to General Manager to Head Coach.
The other storyline I’ll be watching is how much the trend of aggressive/reckless decision making continues. The biggest change in the last two decades with coaching is how often they go for it on 4th down (from anywhere on the field) and don’t kick field goals (even though kickers have never been more reliable).
While it’s darn entertaining to watch, it’s a trend that is destined to reverse itself. I’m looking at the Chargers.
Longtime owner Dean Spano fired coach Brandon Staley in mid-December. Staley was one of those head-scratching hires from the beginning. You looked at his resume and thought, “really?” Staley was mostly known for constantly going for it on fourth down, and constantly losing close games. Oh, and that firing came the day after that coach got humiliated by the Raiders.
The NFL sidelines are going to change, in some cities more than others.
Be prepared for a fascinating new chapter.